Topteam

The horse clearly thrives on normal ground conditions. On anything dry and standard, he wins at a remarkable rate: three wins from six races, which is 50%. Shift him to soft or fast ground and his record tumbles, suggesting he has a strong preference for the kind of surface you get on most British race days. There is a distance sweet spot too. At around a mile and three to four furlongs — just over a mile and a quarter — Topteam wins roughly two in every five races. It is a narrow window, but a real one.

The bigger picture is less cheerful. His last win came at Kempton Park back in April, six months ago, and he has not found the frame in his most recent outing, which came just a day ago. More striking is his record in Class 4 races, where he wins at a stunning 60% (three from five), compared to his overall 27% win rate. This suggests he is genuinely competitive at that level but struggles against stronger opposition. Trained by Andrew Balding's Kingsclere yard — which has sent out 202 winners this season — he has the infrastructure to find his way back to form, but the current run without a win is becoming difficult to ignore. Right now, Topteam looks like a horse that needs to return to the conditions and grade where he has proven he belongs.