Tony Montana

The key to unlocking Tony Montana seems to be conditions. On normal ground, he has won 3 times from just 9 races — that is 1 in every 3, which is a dramatically better record than anything else in his profile. Stretch him out to a mile and three or four furlongs, and he has won 3 from 14 races at those distances, suggesting he wants time and space to get into his stride. The problem is that when the race is truly top-drawer — Class 2, the kind of race that attracts the best horses in Britain — he has run twelve times without winning. That is not a disgrace, but it does suggest he has been finding the ceiling of his ability at the highest level he has been tested.

His trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy, who has sent out 41 winners already this season from his Newmarket yard, has an interesting problem on his hands. Tony Montana has finished second twice this year, which has pushed his official rating to a career-high of 99 — good enough to enter some of the famous summer handicaps at Royal Ascot, but awkward because a higher rating means tougher competition. De Foy has been candid about the Royal Hunt Cup as a possibility, admitting he is not totally convinced the race will suit but is keen to try. The fallback plan — the John Smith's Cup at York, where the horse finished third last year — is a race he has already shown he can handle.

David Egan, who rides Tony Montana more than anyone else, has partnered him to just 1 win from their 10 races together. That is a 10% win rate, or 1 in every 10 rides, which reflects the horse's overall story: capable, consistent, but waiting for things to fall just right. His last win came at Windsor in May 2024, now almost two years ago, and his recent run of six races without a win shows how fine the margins can be. He raced just yesterday, which means whatever comes next is not far away.