Tony Montana

The key to Tony Montana is ground and distance. He wins roughly one in every four races when the ground is normal and dry — 3 wins from 12 attempts — a rate that climbs to 18% (3 from 17) over the middle distances of a mile and three furlongs to a mile and four furlongs. In top-class company he struggles badly, with no wins from 12 races at Class 2 level, but lower down he is competitive. Trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy's yard at Newmarket has been prolific this season with 40 winners, and the trainer sees potential in a new angle: the stiff mile at Ascot in the Royal Hunt Cup, a race where the quick ground and tight track could suit. That gamble carries real risk — Philippart De Foy admits he is "not totally convinced" — but if it misfires, the plan shifts to races like the John Smith's Cup at York, where Tony Montana finished third last year. At 99 on the handicap, his career-high mark, he is a horse caught between backing into contention and running out of opportunities. With David Egan his regular partner — winning just once from 12 rides together — consistency rather than brilliance has defined his partnership with the saddle.