Tolstoy

The real story, though, is what happens when conditions and distance align. Put him on slightly soft ground and Tolstoy becomes a different proposition entirely: he has won 3 of his last 5 races on that surface, a striking 60% win rate that suggests he relishes the give underfoot. On normal ground his win rate drops to 22% (2 from 9), but that is still well above his career average. Distance-wise, he runs best over a mile and a bit — 1m1f to 1m2f — where he has won 2 of his 9 races. More importantly, he is a course specialist at York, having won 3 of his 7 races there. That kind of consistency at one track is rare and valuable.

Brian Ellison's Norton yard has trained him throughout his career, and recent form shows a horse still competitive. Tolstoy won at Doncaster just three weeks ago, and his last six runs read 7-1-17-14-10-4 — that 1 being a win, and the 4 from his most recent outing showing he crossed the line fourth. He runs most often for jockey Ben Robinson, who has ridden him to 2 wins from 11 races together. This is not a flash prospect chasing Group glory; this is a proper racing horse, tactically suited to certain conditions and tracks, who has already earned nearly a full career from consistent, hard-earned victories.