Tilsworth Turf

On soft or heavy going, Tilsworth Turf has won 2 from 7 races — that's a win rate of 29%, or roughly 1 in every 3 runs. For context, that's more than four times its overall win rate. Most horses at this level don't have a clear signature strength, but this one does. When the rain comes and the ground gets heavy, Tilsworth Turf belongs in the conversation.

The horse competes almost exclusively at Class 6 level — the entry-level tier of British racing, where most horses are learning their trade or simply finding their feet. Even there, it has won just 2 from 20 races (10%, or 1 in 10), which tells you this isn't a horse dominating its grade. Its last win came at Ripon in September 2024, which is now over six months ago, and the recent form makes for difficult reading: three finishes outside the top eight in its last four runs. The partnership with jockey Jonny Peate hasn't sparked anything either — five races together, zero wins.

Trained by J R Jenkins out of Royston in Hertfordshire, Tilsworth Turf is part of a yard that has sent out six winners this season, so there's clearly ability within the stable. Jenkins will know better than anyone that this horse needs conditions to fall its way. The key is simple: watch the weather forecast. If there's been meaningful rainfall before race day and Tilsworth Turf's name is in the draw, that's when this horse becomes genuinely interesting. In dry or normal conditions, the record says don't hold your breath.