Tilsworth Turf

The one number that really stands out is the wet ground record. On soft or muddy going, Tilsworth Turf has won 2 of just 6 races — that's a 33% win rate, which for a horse whose overall record is 1 win in every 13 races is a remarkable contrast. It's not a coincidence. This is a horse that visibly comes alive when the ground rides slow and heavy, and any trainer keeping an eye on the weather forecast before entering this one is thinking clearly.

Almost all of Tilsworth Turf's racing has come at the bottom end of the sport — Class 6, the lowest tier of flat racing in Britain. Of 20 races at that level, the horse has won twice, a 10% win rate, or roughly 1 in every 10 attempts. That's modest, but it does confirm the two wins were earned fairly rather than gifted. Jockey Lewis Edmunds has been aboard five times without a win between them, though in a horse with only two career victories to its name, that's more a reflection of the task than any particular criticism.

Trained by J R Jenkins out of Royston in Hertfordshire, Tilsworth Turf is part of a yard that has sent out 8 winners already this season — a decent return that shows the operation knows how to get horses ready to win. A 68-day break since the last run suggests there may have been some deliberate freshening up, and if the rain comes and the ground cuts up before the next appearance, this is exactly the sort of horse to keep in mind. The combination of a short break, a trainer in form, and the right conditions could easily produce a third career win.