Tennessee Gold

The five-year-old, trained by Joseph Parr out of Newmarket, also has a clear preference for wet, muddy ground. On that kind of surface it has won 2 from 8 races — 25% — which is a much better return than its overall numbers suggest. Put Tennessee Gold at Kempton on a soggy day and you have a horse that tends to show up. The yard has sent out six winners this season and Daniel Muscutt, who rides Tennessee Gold more than anyone else, has won 2 of his 8 rides on the horse — again, 1 in every 4, which comfortably beats the horse's overall average.

The honest part of the picture is the recent form. Tennessee Gold's last six results — finishing 7th, 9th, 6th, 8th, 7th, and 8th — make for pretty grim reading, and it hasn't won since Kempton in December 2024. That's now 19 months without a victory, and six races in a row without threatening the top spots. At the level it typically competes — mid-tier racing, the kind of card that fills out a Tuesday afternoon card — it has won just 12 from every 100 races, or 2 from 16 at that class. It is not a horse that dominates its division.

But the combination of Kempton, soft ground, and Muscutt in the saddle is the one scenario where Tennessee Gold has previously delivered. It raced just yesterday and is clearly being kept busy. Whether another run at its favourite track in the right conditions can spark a return to form is the interesting question — because on paper, the ingredients are there, even if the recent results make it hard to back with much confidence.