Sir Les Patterson

The numbers that really stand out are the ones tied to specific conditions. On normal ground, Sir Les Patterson has won 4 of 6 races — that is a 67% win rate, which is extraordinary. Most horses at this level are doing well to win one in five. Put it on wet or muddy ground and the story changes entirely, so the team at Stephen Thorne's yard in Rush, Co Dublin, will be watching the weather forecast carefully before committing. Thorne has had a productive season — 24 winners sent out already — and clearly knows how to place a horse where it can win.

The other number worth circling is Dundalk: 2 wins from 3 races there. Course specialists are a real phenomenon in racing, and something about that track — its surface, its layout, its tight turns — clearly suits this horse. The most recent of those Dundalk wins came in February, just three months ago, so that confidence is fresh. At seven furlongs to a mile, it has also won 2 of 3 races, suggesting the team have found the right trip as well as the right track.

Typically running in Class 3 races — solid, competitive company, a level below the very top races in Britain and Ireland — Sir Les Patterson wins roughly 1 in 3 at that grade. That might not sound like much, but it means it belongs there and can beat the field when the conditions line up. With 5 wins and 8 places from 17 races overall, this is a horse that rarely runs a bad race. Get it to Dundalk, on normal ground, over a mile, and you have a horse that wins more often than not.