Rogue Lightning

The trouble is that was 33 months ago, and he has not won since. His last six results read 11th, 2nd, 7th, 9th, 11th, 7th — a sequence that speaks to a horse who can still find the frame on a good day but has not quite recaptured the magic. Most of those races have been at the very top level, where he wins only about 1 in every 9 — so it is not as though he has been taking the easy route.

What has changed recently is the ambition of trainer Tom Clover's campaign. Rogue Lightning has been running overseas — most recently in Qatar and in America, at the famous Keeneland track in Kentucky. Clover was encouraged by the Keeneland run, where the horse led in the straight before being run down, and called it a huge race in defeat. The Churchill Downs trip that followed was more forgiving — the ground was wet and heavy, the horse was caught wide, and Clover is essentially putting a line through it. The trainer is now eyeing the July Cup, a prestigious British sprint, and believes six furlongs is exactly where this horse belongs.

Rogue Lightning is at his best on normal ground, winning 2 of his 3 races in those conditions — a remarkable 67% clip. If Clover can get him back to Britain on a decent surface over six furlongs, there is a compelling case that the horse most people wrote off after a quiet run in Kentucky still has something to say.