Rare Change

The telling detail about Rare Change is that he absolutely thrives on fast, dry ground. On those conditions, he has won two of six races — a 33 percent win rate that is nearly double his overall record. His most recent victory came at Goodwood on 7 June, three months ago, which suggests he may be due a run on the sort of ground that suits him. That win came when jockey Hector Crouch felt he'd found the perfect ride in a race where the horse was stepping up significantly in grade. Hughes has also noted that even when things go wrong, Rare Change competes well — a sign of genuine character.

His recent form tells a mixed story. In his last six races, he's registered one win (that Goodwood success) and a third place, but also several disappointing efforts in the sevens. Finley Marsh, his most frequent partner with eight rides, has managed just one win together, suggesting the pairing hasn't quite clicked. Still, a horse that wins on his day, loves dry ground, and has the backing of a confident trainer with a red-hot yard is one worth watching when conditions align.