Pinball Wizard

The conditions really matter with this horse. Put Pinball Wizard on wet, muddy ground and the record transforms: 2 wins from just 4 races, meaning it has won half its races on soft or heavy ground. That is a remarkable conversion rate for any horse at any level, and it tells you something important — when the rain has been down and the ground is testing, this horse is well worth keeping an eye on. Over shorter distances of five to six-and-a-half furlongs, it has won 2 of 10 races, a 20% win rate that again outperforms its overall average.

The most striking number in Pinball Wizard's record, though, is at Kempton Park. Two wins from three visits there amounts to a course record that most horses at any level would envy. Plenty of horses have quirks about certain tracks — the bends, the surface, the configuration — and Kempton clearly suits this one down to the ground. The first career win came there back in September 2021, and the bond between horse and venue looks like more than coincidence. At Class 5 level, which is where most of its best opportunities arise, it has won 2 of 5 races — a 40% win rate that again suggests a horse capable of winning at that grade when conditions align.

The current spell without a win stretches back to Wolverhampton in September 2024 — 21 months and six races without getting back to the winner's enclosure. The most recent run, just yesterday, produced no finish position recorded, and before that a second and a seventh suggest the form is patchy but not entirely cold. Regular partner Sean D Bowen has ridden the horse in 24 of its 45 races for 2 wins together, and trainer John McConnell's yard in Co Meath has been in good form this season, sending out 38 winners. For Pinball Wizard, the formula for a winning return is reasonably clear: Kempton, soft ground, and a sprint trip. When those boxes tick, history says pay attention.