Paladin

Trained by Kevin Frost at Averham Park in Nottinghamshire, Paladin operates out of a yard that has been in fine form this season — 25 winners sent out already, which tells you this is a stable that knows how to get a horse ready to run. The partnership with jockey Oliver Stammers has proven particularly fruitful: the two have raced together five times and won twice, a 40% win rate that is remarkable by any standard. To put that in plain terms, when Stammers is in the saddle, Paladin wins 2 in every 5 races. Most yards would be delighted with half that figure.

The horse does its best work in Class 4 company — one step below the top tier, where the competition is serious without being elite. Paladin has run 14 times at that level and won 3 of them, a 21% win rate that is respectable but not dominant. Where conditions really seem to matter is the ground. On fast, dry ground, Paladin comes alive: 2 wins from 5 races at 40%, which is a striking figure and one worth watching when the sun has been out for a few days.

The first win came at Haydock Park back in July 2023, and the most recent was at Wolverhampton in January this year — six months ago now. Recent form reads 2-18-1-5-2-7, which tells a story of mixed fortunes: a win and a second are buried in there, but also some runs where things clearly did not click. That said, Paladin raced just one day ago, meaning whatever happened last time out is still fresh. This is a horse very much in the middle of its story.

What makes Paladin interesting is the combination of a trainer in form, a jockey who gets results, and a clear preference for dry conditions. When those three things align, the record suggests something is likely to happen.