Over Spiced

The statistics reveal something worth watching, though. Over Spiced wins roughly one in every eight races overall, which is modest enough, but it is on normal ground that this horse really comes alive. On standard conditions it has won four of its last 16 races — a 25% win rate that suggests it genuinely dislikes the extremes of either mud or firm, fast ground. That is not a flaw so much as a preference that the trainer Grace Harris and her Shirenewton yard know well. Harris has sent out 31 winners this season, so she is no novice at placing horses in the right spot.

The partnership with jockey Ray Dawson has been the bright spot. Together they have won twice from seven races, a 29% win rate that beats Over Spiced's overall record by a country mile. When Dawson is in the saddle, the horse plainly runs better, which is the kind of simple, useful fact that keeps a horse competitive at the lower levels it inhabits. At Class 5, Over Spiced has won only two of 20 races, so this is bread-and-butter racing, not a horse heading for bigger things. But with normal ground coming up and Dawson riding when possible, Over Spiced has enough in its locker to find the winner's circle again.