Nostrum

The Newmarket story is the heart of his profile. He won there in September 2022 and again in July 2023, the second of those a Class 1 victory on fast, dry ground — the kind of surface he clearly thrives on. On dry ground, he has won 2 of his 8 races, a 25% win rate that stands well above his overall record. Ryan Moore, one of the best jockeys in the world, has ridden him six times and won three of them — that's a remarkable 1 in 2 success rate together, and it tells you how seriously the top jockey fraternity has taken this horse.

The difficulty is that his last win came 36 months ago, and his recent form makes for uncomfortable reading: in his last six races he has finished 11th, 8th, 5th, 2nd, 14th, and 14th. At Goodwood, Moore reported that Nostrum felt like he had "a puncture" in the final 100 yards — a horse that was travelling beautifully and then simply stopped finding. Appleby suspects the soft, dead ground may have caught him out late on, and hasn't lost faith. He's been raced hard at the highest level throughout, which would test any horse.

What happens next is genuinely interesting. Appleby has been open about considering dropping Nostrum back to six furlongs, with an eye on the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood and potentially a trip to France for the Prix de la Forêt — top international sprints that would suit a horse with his speed and his love of fast ground. He raced just yesterday, so he's fit and active, and the yard has sent out 71 winners this season alone. This is a horse with real ability who hasn't yet worked out how to finish races consistently. When he does, the big occasions are already on the map.