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Molten Sea

There is something pleasantly stubborn about Molten Sea. The five-year-old has now raced 18 times, winning 4 and finishing in the places a further 9 times — that means in more than seven out of every ten races, the yard have come away with at least some prize money. A win rate of roughly 1 in every 4.5 races is decent by any measure, but the quirks buried inside those numbers are what make this horse genuinely interesting to watch.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
5 years old
Sex
Mare
Colour
Bay
Father
Too Darn Hot
Mother
Mill Springs
Owner
Walid Marzouk
Official rating
117

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
18
Career races
4
Wins
22.2%
Win rate
avg ~10%
50%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
138 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

The most striking quirk is this: Molten Sea has run 8 times at Class 4 level — the bread-and-butter tier of British racing — and has not won once. Zero from eight. Yet drop down the conditions or find the right spot, and the horse delivers. All four career wins have come in different circumstances, which suggests Molten Sea is not a horse that dominates one particular type of race but rather one that peaks when everything clicks just right. Normal conditions seem to help that process along considerably: on standard ground, Molten Sea has won 3 of 8 races, a remarkable 38% — more than 1 in every 3 starts. That is a number that would make any trainer take notice when the going is described as good.

Fergal O'Brien, operating out of his yard in Withington, Gloucestershire, is a trainer who clearly knows how to keep a horse in form. Her operation has sent out 90 winners this season alone — a relentless, high-volume stable that finds opportunities week after week. Molten Sea fits that profile: active, placed regularly, and clearly well-managed. Cieren Fallon is the jockey most associated with the horse, the pair having teamed up five times with one win between them. That is a 20% win rate together, which is respectable, though there is arguably more to unlock.

Recent form tells an encouraging story. Reading the last six runs from most recent backwards — 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 5th, 10th, 8th — there is an unmistakable upward swing. After two quiet efforts, Molten Sea won at Kempton Park in March 2026, then backed it up with a second and a third. That is the kind of trajectory that makes a horse worth following. Having raced just one day ago, Molten Sea is clearly in a busy spell, and if normal ground is on offer next time out, the stats say you should be paying attention.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good ground: 3 wins from 8 starts (38%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 3 starts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good (a little give)
Loves
Good to soft (some give)
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Standard (all-weather)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
1M6F – 2M
1M3F – 1M4F
Unknown
Long Distance (2M+)
Ok
🏅 Race level
Class 2 (high-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Avoids
Class 5 (entry-level)
Class 6 (grassroots)
Unknown
🏟 Track shape
Right-handed, long straights
Left-handed, long straights
Ok
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, tight
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Long straights
Unknown

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
6 Jun
3rd
Worcester
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 8 runners
11 Apr
2nd
Chepstow
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Soft · 9 runners
14 Mar
🏆 Won
Kempton Park
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 7 runners
22 Feb
5th
hereford
Long Distance (2m+) · Soft · 13 runners
11 Oct
10th
York
Long Distance (2m+) · Good · 17 runners
6 Sep
8th
Kempton Park
1m6f – 2m · Standard_To_Slow · 10 runners
25 Jul
6th
York
Long Distance (2m+) · Good_To_Soft · 12 runners
9 Jul
2nd
Kempton Park
1m6f – 2m · Standard_To_Slow · 9 runners
14 Jun
2nd
Chester
1m6f – 2m · Soft · 9 runners
1 Jun
🏆 Won
Nottingham
1m6f – 2m · Good · 10 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
20%
Win rate
1/5
Wins / rides
100%
Win rate
2/2
Wins / rides
50%
Win rate
1/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
Kempton Park
Galloping
3 1 win, 1 second, 1 other 14 Mar 33.3%
Musselburgh
Sharp
2 2 wins 6 Nov 100%
York
Galloping
2 2 other 11 Oct 0%
Newbury
Galloping
2 2 other 16 May 0%
Nottingham
Galloping
1 1 win 1 Jun 100%
Southwell
Galloping
1 1 other 26 Sep 0%
Chester
Tight
1 1 second 14 Jun 0%
hereford 1 1 other 22 Feb 0%
Goodwood
Undulating
1 1 other 21 Jun 0%
Chepstow
Galloping
1 1 second 11 Apr 0%
Worcester
Galloping
1 1 third 6 Jun 0%
Newmarket
Galloping
1 1 other 18 May 0%
Catterick Bridge
Sharp
1 1 second 19 Oct 0%