Hermino AA

Trained by E McNamara at a yard in Rathkeale, County Limerick that has sent out 22 winners this season, Hermino AA has been something of a project. An early attempt at jumping fences didn't work out, so the team switched him back to hurdles — and that decision paid off almost immediately. He found his feet, ran well enough to finish second in a top-level race at Sandown in February 2024, and then went one better at Newbury in November of that year, landing what turned out to be his most recent win. McNamara has been clear-eyed about what he has on his hands: a fair horse, capable of mixing it in good staying races over hurdles, as long as he stays away from fences.

The ground is a real key with this one. On wet or muddy going he has won 2 races from 6 attempts — a win rate of 33%, or roughly 1 in 3. That is a sharp jump from his overall record, and it tells you something important: when conditions suit, he becomes a different proposition. Jockey Jamie Moore knows him well, having ridden him to both of those wins from their 7 races together, winning at a rate of 1 in every 3.5 — comfortably the best record any rider has on him.

The concern at the moment is his recent run of form. Six races without a win, his most recent outing just yesterday, and the numbers don't immediately suggest a horse on the cusp of a return to winning ways. But nine-year-olds with muddy-ground preferences and a proven ability at a decent level tend to be patient animals — and McNamara's yard is in good enough form to find the right opportunity when it comes. Catch him on a soft winter's day at the right track, with Moore in the saddle, and Hermino AA remains exactly the sort of horse that catches people off guard.