Hawksbill

What gives reason for cautious optimism is where that single win came and where Hawksbill runs best. Over distances between seven furlongs and a mile, he has won 1 of his 9 races — a one-in-nine win rate that stands out sharply against his overall record of roughly 1 win per 20 races. His recent form shows improvement too. A second-place finish at Kempton last month suggests momentum, and trainer Richard Spencer reckons that run came with room for improvement; the horse had a proper test and clearly caught the eye of a trainer thinking about bigger targets. Spencer, whose Newmarket yard has already sent out 30 winners this season, is weighing up whether Hawksbill might tackle the Esher Cup or even aim at the Italian 2,000 Guineas — the kind of ambition you don't usually hear attached to a horse with one career win.

The sticking point is Class 2 racing, where Hawksbill has competed seven times without a victory. These are the top races in Britain, and he has not yet proved he belongs. That makes the next few races crucial. If he can add a second win, it would break a pattern that has defined his career so far and finally convert that promise into results.