Glenfinnan

And conditions matter a great deal with Glenfinnan. On normal ground he has won 4 of his 13 races — almost 1 in 3 — and the quotes from his the yard paint a clear picture: he wants a little ease underfoot, and when the ground dries out and quickens up, he struggles. A run at Goodwood last summer illustrated that painfully, when fast ground saw him finish well down the field. He is not a horse you want racing when the sun has been out all week.

What really stands out is his record at Ascot. Two wins from just five visits to one of the most prestigious tracks in Britain is a remarkable return — that is winning 40% of his races there, at a course where plenty of horses visit repeatedly without ever troubling the judge. Oisin Murphy, who has ridden him at the track, described a horse who travels with real zest and hits the line hard. "He enjoyed travelling quite strongly," Murphy noted, "and when I switched out, it always felt he'd hit the line in front." That is the kind of remark that makes punters take note.

Glenfinnan raced just yesterday and is clearly in good form right now. His most recent win came at Beverley this week, and after a spell of mixed results that included finishes of 15th and 9th, he appears to be finding his feet again. Michael Dods, who has sent out 43 winners from his yard this season alone, suggested the horse is coming back to himself. Regular jockey Connor Beasley has won 1 of their 11 races together — roughly 1 in 11 — which is modest, but the horse clearly goes well for Murphy when he takes the ride. At six, and in current form, there could still be a big day left in him.