French Duke

It has been a long haul since that Goodwood success. Twenty-five months have passed without another win, and his recent form reads like a horse treading water—a pair of sixth-place finishes in his last six races, with placings (second, sixth, and eleventh positions) mixed in between. Yet he remains competitive at the level where he won: at Class 2 tracks, he wins roughly 1 in every 6 races (17%). He also seems to prefer running over the longer distances, between a mile and three furlongs and a mile and four furlongs, where he has managed that one win from ten attempts (10%).

Hamad Al Jehani's Newmarket yard has been in good form this season with 18 winners already, which suggests French Duke has decent support behind him. With a Class 2 win on his record and active in the ring just yesterday, he still has the credentials to deliver another victory—but the form book suggests it will not come easily.