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Fantasy Believer

Fantasy Believer is a horse that keeps proving he has the ability to win at the top level, even if he does not always cooperate with the people trying to help him. At nine years old, he has won 7 of his 42 races—a win rate of roughly 1 in 6—and claimed a Class 2 victory at Doncaster just over a year ago, a result that sits at the peak of his career. What makes him genuinely interesting is the gap between what he can do and what he actually does. With jockey Saffie Osborne, he wins 5 of every 12 races together (42%), a win rate that suggests the pair have found genuine chemistry; without her, he struggles badly.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
9 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Make Believe
Mother
Avizare
Trainer
Owner
Chris David Stam
Official rating
87

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
42
Career races
7
Wins
16.7%
Win rate
avg ~10%
38.1%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
19 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

The numbers reveal a horse that thrives under specific conditions. On wet or muddy ground, he has won 2 of his last 3 races—a remarkable 67% win rate that makes poor weather his playground. Fast, dry ground is a different story: he has managed only 2 wins from 7 attempts there. At Ascot, where many horses perform consistently well or badly, he has won twice in six races, suggesting the track suits him. Most of his racing happens in Class 3 company, where he has won 4 of 17 races (24%), though that Doncaster Class 2 win proved he belongs at a higher level when the conditions align.

His recent form tells a story of a horse searching for answers. He has not won in his last six races, finishing as high as fourth but more often trailing. Trained by Ed Walker at Upper Lambourn—a yard sending out 76 winners this season—Fantasy Believer has returned after what Osborne described as a lengthy break, and the jockey praised Walker's team for getting him back to race fitness. With wet ground favoring him so strongly, and Osborne proving she understands how to ride him, his next opportunity on a sodden track with his preferred jockey could be exactly what he needs to break his drought.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good_to_firm ground: 2 wins from 7 starts (29%)
✔ Excellent record on soft ground: 2 wins from 3 starts (67%)
✔ Effective partnership with Saffie Osborne: 42% win rate together
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on standard_to_slow ground: 0 wins from 8 starts
⚠ Yet to win at Kempton Park in 9 attempts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Loves
Soft (muddy)
Loves
Good to soft (some give)
Standard (all-weather)
Ok
Good (a little give)
Ok
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
1M3F – 1M4F
1M1F – 1M2F
Ok
🏅 Race level
Class 1 (elite)
Unknown
Class 2 (high-level)
Ok
Class 3 (mid-level)
Class 4 (standard)
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, long straights
Right-handed, long straights
Right-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
30 Sep
7th
Kempton Park
1m3f – 1m4f · 10 runners
8 Aug
7th
Ascot
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Firm · 10 runners
24 Jul
4th
Ascot
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Firm · 9 runners
11 Jul
11th
York
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Firm · 22 runners
12 Jun
5th
York
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 16 runners
25 Oct
10th
Doncaster
1m3f – 1m4f · Heavy · 12 runners
28 Sep
6th
Epsom Downs
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 10 runners
13 Sep
🏆 Won
Doncaster
1m3f – 1m4f · Soft · 10 runners
28 Aug
7th
Southwell
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 12 runners
7 Aug
3rd
Chepstow
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 12 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
41.7%
Win rate
5/12
Wins / rides
14.3%
Win rate
1/7
Wins / rides
Kieran Shoemark Current jockey
0%
Win rate
0/5
Wins / rides
33.3%
Win rate
1/3
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/3
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
Kempton Park
Galloping
9 1 second, 1 third, 7 other 30 Sep 0%
Ascot
Galloping
6 2 wins, 4 other 8 Aug 33.3%
Newbury
Galloping
3 1 win, 2 other 21 Sep 33.3%
Southwell
Galloping
3 1 win, 1 third, 1 other 28 Aug 33.3%
Chepstow
Galloping
3 1 win, 2 thirds 7 Aug 33.3%
Newcastle
Galloping
3 1 third, 2 other 26 Jun 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
2 1 win, 1 other 25 Oct 50%
Newmarket
Galloping
2 1 win, 1 second 21 Jul 50%
Goodwood
Undulating
2 1 third, 1 other 30 Jul 0%
York
Galloping
2 2 other 11 Jul 0%
Bath
Undulating
1 1 other 18 Oct 0%
Sandown Park
Galloping
1 1 other 26 May 0%
Great Yarmouth
Galloping
1 1 third 14 Jun 0%
Leicester
Sharp
1 1 other 10 Oct 0%
Epsom Downs
Undulating
1 1 other 28 Sep 0%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
1 1 other 31 Dec 0%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
1 1 other 7 Sep 0%