Falcon Nine

What makes him worth watching now, though, is that he has found something. Both his wins came within four days last August, at Carlisle and then Musselburgh, suggesting a horse that suddenly clicked into gear. Trainer Iain Jardine, who runs a strong yard in Dumfries, has spoken warmly about Falcon Nine's progress, noting that while the horse was once short on confidence, he has recently strung together a couple of decent performances. The trainer sees him as capable of winning again, and that matters—these remarks don't come from nowhere.

The problem is that 13 months have passed since that Musselburgh victory, and in his last six races Falcon Nine has managed only one win, with several places sprinkled through his record but nothing conclusive. He does have a clear preference for normal ground and seems to run best over distances between one mile and one and a quarter—ground on which he has won twice from 21 races (roughly 1 in 10). More intriguingly, he wins one in every eight races when ridden by Mohammed Tabti, a far better return than his overall record suggests. That partnership might be worth monitoring. Falcon Nine remains a horse of ability, but one who needs things to fall into place.