Falcon Nine

Both of his career wins came in quick succession last August — first at Carlisle on the 4th, then at Musselburgh four days later — which tells you something about a horse finding his feet and running with it. Trainer Iain Jardine, whose yard at Carrutherstown has sent out an impressive 57 winners this season, has spoken about Falcon Nine as a horse who was lacking confidence but has found a bit of form and momentum. The wins might have come in Class 6 races — the entry-level tier of British racing — but as Jardine himself noted, they still take some winning. Back-to-back victories in four days is the kind of thing that changes the way a yard thinks about a horse.

The numbers point to a fairly clear picture of when Falcon Nine is at his best. On normal ground, he's won 2 from 10 — that's 20%, or roughly 1 in 5, which is a genuinely solid conversion rate for a horse with his overall record. At distances of a mile and a furlong to a mile and two furlongs, he's won 2 of 18 races, around 1 in 9, and that's almost certainly where his trainer will keep aiming him. His most productive partnership has been with jockey Mohammed Tabti, who has ridden him to both career wins from 8 attempts together — a 25% win rate, or 1 in every 4 rides. That relationship clearly matters.

He hasn't won in his last six races, and his recent finishing positions — a couple of sevenths, a fourth, a tenth, and a third — paint the picture of a horse running consistently without quite getting over the line. He raced just yesterday, so he's fit and active. Whether that next win is close depends on conditions falling right, but Jardine seems to believe there's more to come from him. For a horse operating at the level Falcon Nine does, that kind of trainer confidence is about as good a reason as any to keep an eye on him.