Ernie's Valentine

The horse runs best at distances between a mile and a furlong and a mile and two furlongs, where it has won four of 27 races—a respectable 15% win rate at that trip. In Class 4 company specifically, where most of its racing has taken place, Ernie's Valentine has won 3 of 20, again at that same 15% level. These are the conditions where it belongs, and the figures suggest it can still win races at this level. Ross Burdon's Newmarket yard has had twelve winners this season, so the trainer is working with decent material, and Phoebe Edwards, the horse's most regular jockey with two wins from thirteen rides together, understands how to get the best from it.

The problem is consistency. Recent form reads 2-4-7-4-8-8, which tells you Ernie's Valentine still has the ability to place in races—it is regularly competitive enough to finish in the first four—but cannot seem to find that final gear needed to win. For a horse of this age and experience, another ten months without victory would spell the end of its racing days. It remains a capable Class 4 performer on its day, but time is running out to prove it has more to give.