Dain Ma Nut In

The pattern that explains most of its success is straightforward. Dain Ma Nut In loves standard ground and hates racing on extremes—it has won four of ten races on normal conditions, a 40% win rate that dwarfs its form elsewhere. Put it over the right distance and the picture becomes clearer still. At races between 1m1f and 1m2f, it has won three of five outings, which is remarkably consistent for a horse at this level. York brings out the best in it: two wins from four races there means it has genuine form over the course, not a fluke.

Right now the horse is searching for form. It hasn't won in its last six races, with recent results of eighth, ninth, sixteenth, second, eighteenth and eighth again. That tells you it is still running but struggling to fire. It is trained by Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore's yard at Milnathort in Perth & Kinross—a outfit that sent out 49 winners this season, so there is no shortage of expertise. Oisin Orr has ridden it five times with one win, which is respectable rather than special chemistry. The question now is whether this horse can rediscover whatever made it click at York and on normal ground twelve months ago, or whether age and hard racing have started to catch up.