Caprelo

The overall picture is three wins and seven places from 16 races, a win rate of roughly 1 in every 5, and a career shaped heavily by conditions underfoot. On wet or muddy ground, Caprelo is a different horse entirely: three wins from nine races on soft surfaces, winning 1 in 3, compared to nothing on faster ground. He also does his best work over longer distances — between a mile and six furlongs and two miles — where he has won twice from seven races. Put all that together and the ideal conditions for Caprelo are fairly specific: Kempton, a mile and a half or more, and a bit of rain in the forecast.

His trainer, Hughie Morrison, based at East Ilsley in Berkshire and a yard that has sent out 20 winners already this season, has been candid about the horse's inconsistency. Morrison has noted that Caprelo has the ability — he won first time out last season and placed twice — but has become frustratingly unreliable. He was sent off favourite at Kempton last time and finished fifth, and Morrison pointed to the temperament that can run in his bloodline: a tendency to not always put his best foot forward when it matters. It is the maddening kind of talent that keeps the yard hopeful but never quite comfortable.

His recent form tells both sides of the story: wins in two of his last six races, but also a sixteenth-place finish sandwiched in between. He last won at Kempton in September 2024 and returns now after a break of roughly four months. That freshness could suit him — he has form first time out — but whether he arrives switched on or switches off again is, as Morrison effectively admitted, something of an open question. When Caprelo is in the mood, he is a genuinely solid performer at his level. The trick is catching him on one of those days.