Bellasio

The horse is a genuine course specialist at Carlisle, where he has won twice in six races. His first career win came there in mid-June this year, and he returned to the track to win again just over two months ago. This isn't accident; Carlisle suits him. Tuer has indicated that soft, muddy ground is essential to how Bellasio runs best, which explains why the trainer gave him a midsummer break to prepare for an autumn campaign. The plan is telling: get the conditions right, get the horse right on the day, and Bellasio can run into the all-weather winter season with momentum.

Where Bellasio struggles is when stepped up in class. He has raced six times at Class 3 level — the higher end of typical competition — and has won none of those races. This is the ceiling he has bumped against. He wins at Carlisle, he finishes second elsewhere, but when the opposition gets genuinely good, he tends to fall away. Oliver Stammers, his most frequent jockey, has partnered him eight times with one winner between them. It is not a great win rate, but in a yard as productive as Tuer's — which has sent out twenty-nine winners already this season — Bellasio remains very much in the picture. His trainer believes there is 10lb of improvement left to find. Whether he finds it will decide whether Bellasio becomes a genuinely useful racehorse or remains a pleasant consistent performer who occasionally shines at the right track.