Beelzebub

The horse has a clear preference for normal conditions: he has won 3 of his 17 races on standard ground, giving him a 18% win rate on his favourite surface. Give him the fast, dry ground he likes and his chances improve considerably. Class 5 races—the workaday sort where most ordinary racehorses ply their trade—have yielded 2 wins from 14 attempts, which again is solid, if unspectacular. His recent form is genuinely encouraging. Looking at his last six races in reverse order, he has finished second, first, sixth, ninth, seventh and tenth—that second and first place tell you he is winning races and staying competitive, even if there is also the odd poor day mixed in.

Daniel Muscutt has ridden Beelzebub eight times and won on him twice, a 25% win rate that suggests they work well together. Trainer Tony Carroll, who is based at Cropthorne in Worcestershire and has sent out 136 winners this season, has outlined plans to step him up in distance. Carroll sees him as a horse capable of winning off modest marks, and has flagged Newcastle as a potential next target. That is worth noting if you come across Beelzebub in the betting markets—it suggests the yard has genuine intentions and believes he is ready to pay his way.