Bay Dream Believer

The most striking thing about her is what she does at Ripon. Three wins from 7 races there is exceptional — that means she has won almost half the times she has lined up at that track, which is the kind of dominance that turns casual observers into believers. Trainer Mark Walford, based just up the road at Sheriff Hutton in North Yorkshire, knows the local tracks intimately, and it shows. His yard has sent out 35 winners already this season, and Bay Dream Believer is a meaningful part of that story.

She is also a horse who comes alive on decent or dry ground. On normal conditions she wins 3 from 12, or 1 in 4. On fast, dry ground that improves to 4 wins from 11 — more than 1 in 3 — which is a genuinely impressive ratio and explains why her team keep an eye on the forecast. Walford has described her as very small, almost pony-sized, but says she has one of the biggest hearts in training. That matters, because at the level she competes — mostly Class 6, the everyday bread-and-butter races — heart and consistency beat size every time.

Most recently she won at Pontefract just this week, her latest success coming despite a history of awkward draws and slow starts at that very track. Jockey Rhys Elliott, her most regular partner with 12 races together, has won 2 of those — roughly 1 in 6 — and the partnership continues to develop. Her recent form reads a first, a fifth, and a tenth from her last three runs, which suggests a horse that can blow hot and cool but is capable of producing something special on the right day, on the right ground, at the right track.