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Bay Dream Believer

Bay Dream Believer is a seven-year-old mare who competes at the lower end of the racing ladder, but her record suggests she knows how to find her opportunities. Over 54 races she has won 8 times and placed in 20 more — a solid win rate of roughly 1 in every 6 races. She was trained by Mark Walford at Sheriff Hutton in Yorkshire, and most often ridden by Rhys Elliott, though Elliott's record with her stands at 2 wins from 12 races.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
7 years old
Sex
Mare
Colour
Bay
Father
New Bay
Mother
Arabescatta
Owner
Ursa Major Racing Ltd Partner
Official rating
57

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
54
Career races
8
Wins
14.8%
Win rate
avg ~10%
37.0%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
6 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

What makes Bay Dream Believer interesting is her specialist ability on fast, dry ground. On those conditions she wins roughly 2 in every 5 races — a win rate of 42 per cent from 12 attempts. That's the kind of record that tells you something real about the horse's temperament and physical make-up. She is also a course specialist at Ripon, where she has won 3 of her 8 races. In Class 6 company, her natural home, she wins roughly 1 in every 4 races (5 wins from 20). Her last victory came at Nottingham on 18 July 2026, three months ago, and since then she has finished fourth at both Nottingham and Pontefract — close enough to suggest another win is coming.

Her trainer describes her as small but with an outsized heart. The description fits: a mare who competes at the modest levels and makes the most of the ground and courses that suit her. She raced again at Pontefract just yesterday, finishing fourth despite a difficult draw and a slow start — the kind of effort that keeps her in contention without the prize money to show for it yet. But on the right day, on fast ground, at Ripon or at a track where she runs well, Bay Dream Believer will likely find the winner's circle again.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good_to_firm ground: 5 wins from 12 starts (42%)
✔ Course specialist at Ripon: 3 wins from 8 starts (38%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 8 starts
⚠ Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 8 starts
⚠ Poor record on good_to_soft ground: 0 wins from 6 starts
⚠ Yet to win at Redcar in 6 attempts
⚠ Yet to win at Beverley in 6 attempts
⚠ Yet to win at Newcastle in 5 attempts
⚠ Struggles on RH Undulating tracks: 0 wins from 8 starts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Loves
Good (a little give)
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
Good to soft (some give)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
1M1F – 1M2F
1M3F – 1M4F
Ok
1M6F – 2M
Unknown
7F – 1M
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 3 (mid-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Avoids
Class 6 (grassroots)
Loves
🏟 Track shape
Right-handed, tight turns
Loves
Left-handed, hilly
Left-handed, long straights
Ok
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
12 Oct
2nd
Newcastle
1m1f – 1m2f · Standard · 11 runners
3 Oct
9th
Redcar
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 9 runners
9 Sep
3rd
Redcar
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 10 runners
22 Aug
3rd
Redcar
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 9 runners
11 Aug
5th
Carlisle
7f – 1m · Good · 8 runners
18 Jul
🏆 Won
Nottingham
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Firm · 6 runners
30 Jun
6th
Musselburgh
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 7 runners
17 Jun
7th
Ripon
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 8 runners
2 Jun
🏆 Won
Pontefract
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 8 runners
17 May
5th
Ripon
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 14 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
Rhys Elliott
16.7%
Win rate
2/12
Wins / rides
30%
Win rate
3/10
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/5
Wins / rides
25%
Win rate
1/4
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
100%
Win rate
1/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
Miss Alice Cooke
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
Kyle McHugh(5)
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
Mia Nicholls
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
Alex Jary
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
Ripon
Sharp
8 3 wins, 1 second, 4 other 17 Jun 37.5%
Redcar
Galloping
6 2 seconds, 2 thirds, 2 other 3 Oct 0%
Beverley
Undulating
6 3 thirds, 3 other 17 Sep 0%
Pontefract
Undulating
5 1 win, 1 second, 3 other 2 Jun 20%
Newcastle
Galloping
5 1 second, 4 other 12 Oct 0%
Nottingham
Galloping
4 1 win, 3 other 18 Jul 25%
Hamilton Park
Sharp
4 1 second, 3 other 16 May 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
3 1 win, 2 other 28 Mar 33.3%
Southwell
Galloping
2 2 other 4 Sep 0%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
2 2 other 24 Oct 0%
Leicester
Sharp
1 1 win 11 Aug 100%
Wetherby
Galloping
1 1 win 16 May 100%
Musselburgh
Sharp
1 1 other 30 Jun 0%
Epsom Downs
Undulating
1 1 other 25 Sep 0%
Carlisle
Undulating
1 1 other 11 Aug 0%
Ffos Las
Galloping
1 1 other 25 Jul 0%
Salisbury
Undulating
1 1 other 12 Jun 0%
Newbury
Galloping
1 1 other 13 Aug 0%
Windsor
Sharp
1 1 second 10 Oct 0%