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Bay Dream Believer

Bay Dream Believer is a seven-year-old who has quietly become one of the more reliable performers in her grade in the north of England — small in stature, but with a record that speaks for itself. Across 48 races she has won 7 times and finished in the places a further 16 times, a win rate of around 15%, or roughly 1 in every 6 races. That is a solid return for a horse competing consistently at this level, and her trainer Mark Walford — who has sent out 35 winners from his Sheriff Hutton yard in North Yorkshire this season alone — clearly knows exactly where and when to place her.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
7 years old
Sex
Mare
Colour
Bay
Father
New Bay
Mother
Arabescatta
Owner
Ursa Major Racing Ltd & Partner
Rating
61

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
48
Career races
7
Wins
14.6%
Win rate
avg ~10%
33.3%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🏁 Next Race

Today
Nottingham
About 1 mile · Mostly firm ground · 6 runners

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

The most striking thing about Bay Dream Believer is what she does at Ripon. Three wins from 8 races at that track is a remarkable record — winning 3 in every 8 races anywhere takes some doing, but doing it consistently at one venue suggests a horse that has found somewhere she genuinely thrives. On fast, dry ground she is even more impressive: 4 wins from just 11 races, a win rate of 36%, which is nearly 1 in every 3. That is a figure that would turn heads at any level.

Walford describes her as one of the biggest hearts in training despite being, in his words, "only a little pony." That combination of modest size and serious determination seems to be the key to understanding her. She was gambled on at Ripon despite carrying a penalty from a previous win, and she delivered. Her most recent win came at Pontefract on 2 June 2026, just four weeks ago, and her form since — a fifth and then a sixth — suggests she is still very much in the mix rather than running out of steam.

At Class 6 level, which is where most of her races are run — the bread-and-butter, entry-level end of the sport — she has won 5 of 20 races, a 25% win rate, or 1 in every 4. That is a genuinely strong record at any class. Jockey Rhys Elliott, who knows her well having ridden her 12 times, has won 2 of those rides together, a rate of 17%. She raced just yesterday, which tells you everything about where she is in her season — fit, active, and clearly in good form. With summer sun and dry ground the likely outlook, there is every reason to think Bay Dream Believer has another win in her yet.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good_to_firm ground: 4 wins from 11 starts (36%)
Course specialist at Ripon: 3 wins from 8 starts (38%)
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 8 starts
Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 7 starts
Poor record on good_to_soft ground: 0 wins from 6 starts
Yet to win at Beverley in 6 attempts
Struggles on RH Undulating tracks: 0 wins from 7 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to firm (drying out)
Loves
Good (firm-ish)
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
Good to soft (some give)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
1M1F – 1M2F
1M3F – 1M4F
7F – 1M
Unknown
1M6F – 2M
Unknown
🏅 Competition Level
Class 3 (mid-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Avoids
Class 6 (grassroots)
Loves
🏟 Track Shape
Right-handed, tight turns
Loves
Left-handed, hilly
Left-handed, long straights
Ok
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
30 Jun
6th
Musselburgh
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 7 runners
17 Jun
7th
Ripon
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 8 runners
2 Jun
🏆 Won
Pontefract
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 8 runners
17 May
5th
Ripon
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 14 runners
18 Apr
10th
Nottingham
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 15 runners
28 Mar
13th
Doncaster
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 15 runners
6 Nov
9th
Newcastle
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 12 runners
23 Oct
5th
Nottingham
1m3f – 1m4f · Heavy · 16 runners
4 Oct
2nd
Redcar
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 10 runners
17 Sep
6th
Beverley
1m1f – 1m2f · Soft · 14 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
Rhys Elliott
16.7%
Win rate
2/12
Won / Rode
Jason Hart Current Jockey
30%
Win rate
3/10
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/5
Won / Rode
25%
Win rate
1/4
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
100%
Win rate
1/1
Won / Rode
Miss Alice Cooke
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Alex Jary
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Kyle McHugh(5)
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Mia Nicholls
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Ripon
Sharp
8 3 wins, 1 second, 4 other 17 Jun 37.5%
Beverley
Undulating
6 3 thirds, 3 other 17 Sep 0%
Pontefract
Undulating
5 1 win, 1 second, 3 other 2 Jun 20%
Newcastle
Galloping
4 4 other 6 Nov 0%
Hamilton Park
Sharp
4 1 second, 3 other 16 May 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
3 1 win, 2 other 28 Mar 33.3%
Nottingham
Galloping
3 3 other 18 Apr 0%
Redcar
Galloping
3 2 seconds, 1 other 4 Oct 0%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
2 2 other 24 Oct 0%
Southwell
Galloping
2 2 other 4 Sep 0%
Leicester
Sharp
1 1 win 11 Aug 100%
Wetherby
Galloping
1 1 win 16 May 100%
Ffos Las
Galloping
1 1 other 25 Jul 0%
Salisbury
Undulating
1 1 other 12 Jun 0%
Newbury
Galloping
1 1 other 13 Aug 0%
Musselburgh
Sharp
1 1 other 30 Jun 0%
Windsor
Sharp
1 1 second 10 Oct 0%
Epsom Downs
Undulating
1 1 other 25 Sep 0%