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Bay Dream Believer

Bay Dream Believer is a compact 7-year-old with the kind of determination that punches above her modest size. Trained by Mark Walford at Sheriff Hutton in Yorkshire, she has won 8 of her 51 races—a win rate of roughly 1 in every 6 outings—and built a career that speaks to consistency rather than flashiness. What makes her genuinely interesting is how she dominates when conditions suit her. On fast, dry ground, she wins about 2 in every 5 races (5 wins from 12), a rate that nearly doubles her overall average. Put her on wet or muddy ground and those wins dry up, so tracking the forecast has become part of her story.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Quick Facts
Age
7 years old
Sex
Mare
Colour
Bay
Father
New Bay
Mother
Arabescatta
Owner
Ursa Major Racing Ltd Partner
Rating
63

📊 Key Numbers

Career statistics for this horse
51
Career races
8
Wins
15.7%
Win rate
avg ~10%
35.3%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
1 days
Since last race

🔍 Full Analysis

TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
TrackLab's Detailed Breakdown
Auto-Generated

Her partnership with Ripon deserves real attention. At that Yorkshire track alone, she has won 3 of her 8 races—a 38% win rate that stands out sharply against her overall record. That kind of course form is not coincidence; it suggests something about the way the track suits her running style or temperament, and it makes her a horse worth remembering when she heads there again. Her most recent win came at Nottingham on 18 July, a victory that came with a 5lb penalty, and Walford has watched her knock on the door since—fourth at Nottingham and again at Pontefract, showing the hunger is still there even when luck hasn't quite broken her way.

Jockey Rhys Elliott has ridden her 12 times and won twice, a winning rate of about 1 in 6. Her current form reads 3-5-1-6-7-1 over her last six races, meaning she was third just a fortnight ago and fourth most recently, at Pontefract last Monday where she finished with real power despite drawing badly and breaking slowly. Mark Walford describes her as small but possessing one of the biggest hearts in his yard—words that carry weight in racing, where toughness matters as much as raw ability. At her typical level, Class 6 races, she wins roughly 1 in every 4 times (5 wins from 20), putting her comfortably above average for the grade.

Strengths & Risks

What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
Excellent record on good_to_firm ground: 5 wins from 12 starts (42%)
Course specialist at Ripon: 3 wins from 8 starts (38%)
⚠ What to watch out for
Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 8 starts
Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 7 starts
Poor record on good_to_soft ground: 0 wins from 6 starts
Yet to win at Beverley in 6 attempts
Struggles on RH Undulating tracks: 0 wins from 8 starts

🎯 Where This Horse Thrives

Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to firm (drying out)
Loves
Good (firm-ish)
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Soft (muddy)
Avoids
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
Good to soft (some give)
Avoids
📏 Race Distance
1M1F – 1M2F
1M3F – 1M4F
1M6F – 2M
Unknown
7F – 1M
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 3 (mid-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Avoids
Class 6 (grassroots)
Loves
🏟 Track Shape
Right-handed, tight turns
Loves
Left-handed, hilly
Left-handed, long straights
Ok
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids

📅 Recent Runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
22 Aug
3rd
Redcar
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 9 runners
11 Aug
5th
Carlisle
7f – 1m · Good · 8 runners
18 Jul
🏆 Won
Nottingham
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Firm · 6 runners
30 Jun
6th
Musselburgh
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 7 runners
17 Jun
7th
Ripon
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 8 runners
2 Jun
🏆 Won
Pontefract
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 8 runners
17 May
5th
Ripon
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 14 runners
18 Apr
10th
Nottingham
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 15 runners
28 Mar
13th
Doncaster
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 15 runners
6 Nov
9th
Newcastle
1m3f – 1m4f · Standard · 12 runners

🏇 Jockey Partnerships

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
Rhys Elliott
16.7%
Win rate
2/12
Won / Rode
Jason Hart Current Jockey
30%
Win rate
3/10
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/5
Won / Rode
25%
Win rate
1/4
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/2
Won / Rode
100%
Win rate
1/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Alex Jary
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Kyle McHugh(5)
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Mia Nicholls
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
Miss Alice Cooke
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode
0%
Win rate
0/1
Won / Rode

🏟 Track Record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast visitedWin rate
Ripon
Sharp
8 3 wins, 1 second, 4 other 17 Jun 37.5%
Beverley
Undulating
6 3 thirds, 3 other 17 Sep 0%
Pontefract
Undulating
5 1 win, 1 second, 3 other 2 Jun 20%
Nottingham
Galloping
4 1 win, 3 other 18 Jul 25%
Hamilton Park
Sharp
4 1 second, 3 other 16 May 0%
Newcastle
Galloping
4 4 other 6 Nov 0%
Redcar
Galloping
4 2 seconds, 1 third, 1 other 22 Aug 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
3 1 win, 2 other 28 Mar 33.3%
Southwell
Galloping
2 2 other 4 Sep 0%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
2 2 other 24 Oct 0%
Leicester
Sharp
1 1 win 11 Aug 100%
Wetherby
Galloping
1 1 win 16 May 100%
Epsom Downs
Undulating
1 1 other 25 Sep 0%
Ffos Las
Galloping
1 1 other 25 Jul 0%
Carlisle
Undulating
1 1 other 11 Aug 0%
Windsor
Sharp
1 1 second 10 Oct 0%
Musselburgh
Sharp
1 1 other 30 Jun 0%
Salisbury
Undulating
1 1 other 12 Jun 0%
Newbury
Galloping
1 1 other 13 Aug 0%