Jabbar

The standout fact is Killarney, where Jabbar has won twice from just three races. That is the mark of a genuine course specialist, the sort of horse whose form tells you exactly where to look for value. Jabbar also clearly enjoys soft ground, winning 2 of 6 races when conditions turn wet or muddy, and performs equally well on normal ground. At distances between 1m1f and 1m2f, the horse has a 33% win rate from three races — again, a signal that the yard know their horse's sweet spot.

What needs explaining is the 21-month silence since the last win at Dundalk in January. Jabbar has raced six times since and finished in the top 3 only once, a second-place effort most recently. That is a significant drought for a horse that won regularly earlier in its career. The relationship with Keithen Kennedy is worth noting — the pair have a 33% win rate together, with 2 wins from 6 races — suggesting the jockey suits the horse and there is something to work with. G. O'Leary's Kildare yard has been sending out winners this season, so Jabbar remains in a yard with form.

At 7, Jabbar is in the middle years, not past it but no longer young. The test now is whether the horse can rediscover the form that made it a two-time winner at Killarney. A return to that track, especially on soft ground and with Keithen Kennedy in the saddle, would be the obvious place to look for a change in fortune.