Lingfield

The most experienced horse in the field and the only one here to have won at Lingfield — twice in six races at this course — which counts for a lot in a small field. He's also rated 3lbs higher than any rival, making him the form pick on paper. The concern is that he ran poorly here just 103 days ago and returns only six days after a disappointing sixth at Doncaster, with his odds drifting sharply from an early favourite.

Three thirds in a row sounds promising, but this horse has never won in ten career races — including seven attempts at this very course. The bigger worry is the 135-day absence, the longest lay-off of any horse in this field, and there's no obvious reason to think the winning habit will suddenly arrive today. Consistent at showing up without delivering, and fitness after such a long break is a genuine unknown.

The least experienced horse here with only three career races, and the lowest rated by some distance — carrying 6lbs less than the field average. Her form reads sixth, seventh, sixth, and she's never finished in the top half of a field, making her a big ask even in a race of just four runners.