Cartmel

The market has made this the favourite, and it's easy to see why: Sean Og is the only horse in the field with a win at this trip, and five of his six career wins have come right here at Cartmel — a staggering 42% win rate at this track. He won here just two days ago, so he's clearly in top form and clearly loves the place. Running again so quickly is a slight risk, but his record here is simply head and shoulders above anything else in this race.

The lowest-rated horse in the field, carrying the lightest weight — 11lbs below the field average on rating — which reflects that this is a step up in class for a horse whose recent form reads fall, fifth, third. The fall at Newton Abbot just seven days ago is a concern heading into another chase, and there's nothing in the data to suggest this course or trip suits. The weight advantage helps, but this looks like a tough day at the office.

This horse hasn't raced in 571 days — by far the longest absence in the field — and has only ever won once in nine career races. Coming back from nearly a year and a half off the track, against rivals who have been racing recently and are clearly in form, this is a very tough ask. There is very little in the data to suggest this horse can be competitive first time out after such a long break.