Patrick M O'Brien(5)

The last fortnight has been particularly eye-catching. Two winners from five rides — 40% — is a sharp contrast to his season average and suggests he is in the kind of confident, in-form spell that jockeys dream about. Form in racing is notoriously hard to explain, but it tends to feed on itself: one good result leads to better rides, which leads to more results.

His most regular partnership is with trainer Dermot A McLoughlin, where he has ridden 79 times for 5 winners. That is a win rate of around 1 in 16, which is modest, but 79 rides together tells its own story — McLoughlin clearly trusts him with horses repeatedly, and that kind of steady, working relationship is the backbone of most jockeys' careers at this level.

Where O'Brien really earns his keep is on wet or muddy ground. With 4 wins from 24 races in those conditions, he is winning 1 in every 6 rides when the ground is testing — nearly double his overall rate. Some jockeys have a natural feel for riding in the mud, adjusting their timing and positioning when the ground slows everything down. O'Brien appears to be one of them. Galway tells a similar story: 3 winners from just 10 rides at that track is a 30% win rate, which is exceptional by any measure. Galway is a tight, turning, awkward course that rewards jockeys who understand its quirks, and O'Brien clearly does.

He is still young in career terms and carrying a 5lb claim, which means trainers essentially get him at a discount — a practical incentive that helps him secure rides. The numbers suggest he is making the most of that opportunity while it lasts.