Yabher

The most telling pattern, though, is ground preference. On normal conditions, Yabher wins roughly half its races—three victories from six attempts. Ask it to run on fast, dry ground or heavy, muddy terrain and the record crumbles. This is the kind of detail that matters hugely to those who follow it: you watch for the forecast, and you know whether conditions will suit. Distance also matters. Yabher thrives at a mile and a furlong to a mile and two furlongs, again winning half its races over that range. Shorter or longer and it struggles to fire.

Tom Marquand, its most regular partner, has partnered Yabher in six races and won on two of them—a 33 per cent win rate that suggests the jockey and horse work well together. Recent form has been patchy. In the last six races, Yabher finished eighth, third, unseated, seventeenth, first, and first again. That last win came five months ago at Goodwood, meaning Yabher is due a run; it last raced just a day ago. When it runs next, everything will hinge on whether the ground is kind and the distance suits. Hit both those marks and a horse with top-level wins in its record becomes very dangerous indeed.