Tullybeg

What makes Tullybeg worth watching is a single, concrete edge: he runs much better on slightly soft ground. On wet or muddy tracks he wins roughly 1 in 3 races (2 wins from 6), compared to his overall rate of 1 in 6. That is a genuinely significant advantage, and it suggests there is still a race in him if the conditions are right and the terrain suits. His trainer, Brian M McMahon, based at Scarriff in County Galway, has previously talked about finding him a staying race — a longer distance where his stamina might give him an edge. Jockey Danny Gilligan, who has ridden him most often, has spoken after races about Tullybeg getting into a good rhythm and jumping well, which hints at a horse that still has some ability, even if recent form does not show it.

The problem is the level. At top-tier tracks in Class 2 races, Tullybeg has not won at all (0 from 3), which puts him well outside the elite circle. The window for a horse to come back from nearly three years without a win grows narrower with each race, especially at 11 years old. But if the yard can find him a competitive race on ground that suits — wet enough to bring out his best — there may yet be another win waiting.