Tropical Storm

Both of those York wins came at the very highest level — Class 1 races, which sit right at the top of the sport in Britain. The first came on 24 August 2024, which was also the first win of Tropical Storm's career. There is something satisfying about a horse announcing itself at that kind of occasion rather than working its way up quietly through lesser company. The second York win followed on 15 May 2025, confirming it was no fluke. Across the career as a whole, Tropical Storm has won 2 races from 13 — roughly 1 in every 6 — but zoom in on the top-level races specifically and the record reads 2 wins from 7, which is closer to 1 in every 3. That is a horse that saves its best for the biggest days.

The conditions matter too. On fast, dry ground, Tropical Storm wins roughly 1 in every 3 races — 2 from 6 — compared to a much leaner return when the ground is softer. If you are watching and the track is dry, that is relevant information.

Jockey Oisin Murphy has ridden the horse in 11 of its 13 races, winning both times. That kind of continuity between horse and rider matters — Murphy knows how Tropical Storm travels and when to ask the question. Trainer Andrew Balding, based at Kingsclere in Hampshire, is having a remarkable season: his yard has sent out 199 winners already, making this one of the most productive training operations in the country right now.

The recent form does raise an eyebrow — finishing 17th, 14th, 14th, and 9th in four of the last five outings before the York win suggests this is a horse that blows hot and cold. But given that it raced just one day ago and both peak performances have come at York on dry ground, the picture is actually quite clear. When the stars align — the right track, the right conditions — Tropical Storm is genuinely hard to beat.