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Thunderbear

Thunderbear is a six-year-old still competing regularly, but right now he is going through a tough patch. He has won 5 races from 38 starts over his career — that is roughly 1 win in every 7 or 8 races — and he has not tasted victory in a year. His last win came at Naas on 11 October 2024, and since then his form has been patchy. In his last six races he has finished eighth, fifth, third, twenty-third, eleventh, and sixth, showing flashes of ability without delivering when it matters.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
6 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Kodi Bear
Mother
Speronella
Owner
Liam Ferguson/Simon Murphy/Park Ave Syndicate/Yorkavenue Syndicate
Official rating
92

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
38
Career races
5
Wins
13.2%
Win rate
avg ~10%
34.2%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
8 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

What makes Thunderbear interesting is that he has proved capable at the highest level. On 23 September 2023, he won a Class 1 race at Newbury, one of the top tracks in Britain and a serious test. That victory marked the peak of his career so far and proved he belongs in the company of genuinely good horses. Since then, however, he has struggled. He has raced four times at Class 2 level — the next tier down — and has not won once, suggesting the step up in quality has caught him out or his winning form has simply deserted him.

Stephen Thorne's Rush yard in County Dublin sends out winners regularly, and Thunderbear is typically ridden by Ronan Whelan, though the partnership has produced only one win from ten races together. That suggests the pairing has not clicked consistently. At six years old, Thunderbear is at an age where racehorses are in their prime, yet he appears to be a horse whose best days may be behind him — a genuine Class 1 winner reduced to chasing races he cannot quite win. He remains active and racing, but the year without a victory tells the real story: Thunderbear is searching hard to find his way back.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on heavy ground: 1 wins from 5 starts (20%)
✔ Excellent record on soft ground: 1 wins from 4 starts (25%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on standard ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Yet to win at The Curragh in 8 attempts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Heavy (very wet)
Loves
Soft (muddy)
Loves
Good (a little give)
Yielding (slightly soft)
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Unknown
Good to soft (some give)
Unknown
Soft to heavy (wet)
Unknown
Yielding to soft (damp)
Unknown
Good to yielding (mild give)
Unknown
Standard (all-weather)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
5F – 6½F
7F – 1M
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 1 (elite)
Loves
Class 2 (high-level)
Avoids
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, long straights
Ok
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, tight
Unknown
Left-handed, hilly
Unknown

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
10 Oct
8th
Naas
5f – 6½f · Soft · 9 runners
13 Sep
5th
The Curragh
5f – 6½f · Yielding · 26 runners
5 Sep
3rd
Navan
5f – 6½f · Good · 8 runners
20 Jun
23th
Ascot
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 28 runners
27 Apr
11th
Naas
5f – 6½f · Good · 16 runners
4 Apr
6th
Cork
5f – 6½f · Soft · 11 runners
11 Oct
🏆 Won
Naas
5f – 6½f · Yielding · 11 runners
6 Sep
5th
Ascot
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Soft · 16 runners
29 Jun
DNF
The Curragh
5f – 6½f · Good · 28 runners
7 Jun
3rd
Navan
5f – 6½f · Good · 8 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
10%
Win rate
1/10
Wins / rides
14.3%
Win rate
1/7
Wins / rides
20%
Win rate
1/5
Wins / rides
33.3%
Win rate
1/3
Wins / rides
100%
Win rate
1/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
W J Lee
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
Jack Kearney Current jockey
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
Bauyrzhan Murzabayev
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
The Curragh
Galloping
8 1 second, 7 other 13 Sep 0%
Naas
Galloping
7 1 win, 1 second, 5 other 10 Oct 14.3%
Navan
Galloping
4 1 win, 1 second, 2 thirds 5 Sep 25%
Ascot
Galloping
4 4 other 20 Jun 0%
Dundalk
Galloping
3 3 other 12 Jul 0%
Bellewstown
Sharp
2 1 third, 1 other 6 Apr 0%
Galway
Tight
2 2 other 4 Aug 0%
Nottingham
Galloping
1 1 win 2 May 100%
Newbury
Galloping
1 1 win 23 Sep 100%
Fairyhouse
Galloping
1 1 win 19 Sep 100%
York
Galloping
1 1 other 25 May 0%
Cork
Galloping
1 1 other 4 Apr 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
1 1 third 9 Nov 0%
Bath
Undulating
1 1 other 7 Apr 0%
Down Royal
Galloping
1 1 second 17 Jun 0%