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Theory of Tides

Theory of Tides is a five-year-old with a modest record that tells a story of diminishing returns. Two wins from ten races represents a win rate of roughly one victory every five attempts, which on paper sounds reasonable — but the detail matters. Both of those wins came in May 2024, at Nottingham and Great Yarmouth, and the horse has not found the winner's circle since. That is now 28 months without a victory, a drought that spans his last six races and counting.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
5 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Galileo
Mother
Missrock
Owner
Martyn And Elaine Booth
Official rating
93

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
10
Career races
2
Wins
20%
Win rate
avg ~10%
40%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
30 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

The recent form makes for grim reading: 11th, 9th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, and 10th. He showed some promise with those two second-place finishes not long ago, suggesting he can still run a competitive race, but he has not converted opportunity into success. When Theory of Tides steps up to Class 2 races — the top tier of competition — the record becomes stark: zero wins from three attempts. He belongs at a lower level, and yet he continues to chase races beyond his current reach.

Jamie Osborne's yard at Upper Lambourn has been prolific this season with 48 winners, so Theory of Tides is not without experienced guidance. The fact that he is still racing, with his most recent outing just a day ago, shows there is still faith he can find his way back to the winner's enclosure. At five years old, he is not old, but he is no longer young. The window for a horse to prove itself does not stay open forever, and for Theory of Tides it may be narrowing fast.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good_to_soft ground: 1 wins from 3 starts (33%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 4 starts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Good to soft (some give)
Loves
Good (a little give)
Unknown
Heavy (very wet)
Unknown
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
1M3F – 1M4F
1M1F – 1M2F
Unknown
1M6F – 2M
Unknown
🏅 Race level
Class 1 (elite)
Unknown
Class 2 (high-level)
Avoids
Class 3 (mid-level)
Unknown
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Unknown
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, long straights
Loves
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, long straights
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
19 Sep
11th
Newbury
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Firm · 13 runners
24 Jul
9th
Ascot
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Firm · 9 runners
4 Jul
2nd
Sandown Park
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Firm · 10 runners
20 Sep
2nd
Newbury
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 11 runners
7 Sep
4th
York
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 12 runners
12 Sep
10th
Doncaster
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 10 runners
23 Aug
10th
Hamilton Park
1m6f – 2m · Heavy · 15 runners
21 Jun
11th
Ascot
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Firm · 14 runners
27 May
🏆 Won
Great Yarmouth
1m3f – 1m4f · Good_To_Soft · 10 runners
10 May
🏆 Won
Nottingham
1m3f – 1m4f · Good · 12 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
33.3%
Win rate
1/3
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
100%
Win rate
1/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
Newbury
Galloping
2 1 second, 1 other 19 Sep 0%
Ascot
Galloping
2 2 other 24 Jul 0%
Nottingham
Galloping
1 1 win 10 May 100%
Great Yarmouth
Galloping
1 1 win 27 May 100%
York
Galloping
1 1 other 7 Sep 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
1 1 other 12 Sep 0%
Sandown Park
Galloping
1 1 second 4 Jul 0%
Hamilton Park
Sharp
1 1 other 23 Aug 0%