Spoken Truth

What makes Spoken Truth worth paying attention to is his bloodline and the calibre of the yard behind him. He is a brother to Homeless Songs, a horse that carried serious expectations in Ireland, and David O'Meara — the trainer who bought him at a sale last October — has been in fine form this season, sending out 101 winners from his yard in Upper Helmsley, North Yorkshire. O'Meara noted after a recent second-place finish at Redcar that the ground there may have been a touch too quick and dry for him, and that he expects the horse to progress. That is not a throwaway comment from a trainer who has been watching him every morning.

His best racing comes over a mile and three furlongs to a mile and four furlongs — middle distances that suit a horse who stays well and builds momentum late. He has run nine times at those distances and won once, an 11% win rate, but the pattern of his recent form — second, second, third, second in four of his last six — suggests a horse that simply needs everything to fall right. His regular jockey Chris Hayes has ridden him six times, winning once, which works out to roughly 1 in every 6 rides together. The combination clearly has a relationship worth building on.

The former trainer Dermot Weld, who oversaw that Cork win, spoke about Spoken Truth in glowing terms afterwards, describing him as a gorgeous big horse who wants easier, wetter ground underfoot, and calling him genuinely talented. O'Meara seems to share that belief. A horse with this profile — well-bred, lightly tried in the right sense, finishing close repeatedly — can absolutely win again. The question is simply when the conditions align.