Silver Wraith

Silver Wraith's recent form shows what looks like a dip. After winning at Bath just this week, it had struggled in the races before that—finishing fourth, eleventh, second, fifth, and seventh across its previous five outings. But the victory, its third at the track, suggests it has bounced back to what it does best. At Class 5 level—the lower rungs of competitive racing—it has won one of five races (a 20% win rate), which tells you this is a horse that belongs at this grade and performs within it.

Trained by Emma Lavelle's yard at Ogbourne Maizey in Wiltshire, Silver Wraith is part of a strong operation: Lavelle has sent out 44 winners already this season. The horse is still active and racing, so its story is still being written. The pattern is clear enough: back it at Bath, and you have a genuine chance.