Sarmiento Power

The most encouraging thing in the data is what happens when the trip stretches out. Over distances between a mile and six furlongs and two miles, Sarmiento Power has won 1 from 5 races — a 20% win rate, which is a completely different horse to the one that turns up at shorter trips. That Dundalk win came at this kind of distance, and it suggests the yard knows where its best chance lies: get the trip right, and this horse becomes genuinely competitive rather than an also-ran.

Robbie Colgan is the regular partner, having ridden Sarmiento Power in 7 of its races and picking up that one win together — a 14% win rate when they team up, which is more than double the horse's overall average. That's a meaningful relationship, the kind where a jockey has learned how a horse travels and where it needs to be in a race. Trainer Matthew J Smith operates out of Kilmessan in Co. Meath and has sent out 8 winners this season, so the yard is in decent form even if this particular horse has been quiet.

Recent form makes for sobering reading — three non-completions among the last six runs, plus a couple of fifth-place finishes and a second. That second place is the glimmer of hope, a reminder that when things click, Sarmiento Power can be involved at the finish. The last win was six months ago now, and at the level this horse typically competes at, it has drawn a blank in 4 races without troubling the judge. Sometimes a horse just needs the right day, the right trip, and the right surface to remind everyone why it belongs.