Qitaal

Those three wins have come in very specific circumstances. On slightly wet, soft ground, Qitaal transforms: 2 wins from just 5 races on that surface, a 40% win rate that stands head and shoulders above anything it manages on other ground. That's not a coincidence — that's a horse that genuinely needs conditions to fall its way. At a mile and one or two furlongs, its most comfortable trip, it wins 1 in every 5 races on that distance, which is a meaningful pattern. Put it all together — the right distance, the right ground — and the yard clearly knows what they're trying to find.

The bigger challenge is the level Qitaal usually competes at. Class 2 races are among the better contests on the British racing calendar, and in 14 attempts at that level, Qitaal is yet to win — not once. That's a tough ask week after week, and it explains why the overall numbers look modest despite those flashes of form. Most of the time, this horse is being asked to beat better rivals than it can consistently handle.

The partnership with jockey Joe Fanning tells a similar story — 1 win from 13 races together, so just under 1 in every 13 — though Fanning is one of the most experienced riders in the north of England and knows the horse well. Trainer Charlie Johnston, operating out of the well-regarded Middleham Moor yard in North Yorkshire, has sent out 128 winners this season alone, so this is a professional operation that understands its horses' limits and plays to their strengths.

Qitaal last won at Chester in September 2024 — 19 months ago now — and hasn't threatened to add to that tally in its last 6 races, with form reading 7-4-3-11-2. Raced just yesterday, this is a horse still active and still searching. If the ground comes up soft and the trip is right, it might just remind everyone what it's capable of.