Patontheback

His record of 6 wins from 60 races works out at roughly 1 in every 10, which is modest by any measure. What makes it more intriguing is where those wins have come from. At Musselburgh, the seaside track on the outskirts of Edinburgh, he has won 2 of just 4 races — a remarkable hit rate of 1 in 2 at a track where most horses barely trouble the judge once. His most recent win came there in August last year, in an amateur riders' race under Amy Collier, which suggests he is a horse that races with his head, responding to a good ride rather than simply overpowering his rivals.

The frustrating thing is what has happened since. He has run 6 times without winning, and his trainer Gemma Tutty — who operates from a yard in Osmotherley, North Yorkshire, and has sent out 20 winners already this season — told Racing TV after one recent run at Catterick that everything had gone perfectly and she genuinely feared he might never win if he could not do it that day. That kind of candid admission from a trainer tells you more than any race result: the opportunities have been there, but the luck has not quite landed. Tutty herself believes he is well placed in the weights heading into this season and expects him to run within the week.

His most regular partner is jockey Rowan Scott, who has ridden him 18 times and won on him 3 times — that is a win rate of 17%, or nearly 1 in 6, which is meaningfully better than his overall average. Patontheback has spent most of his career competing at Class 5, the lower end of the British racing ladder, and has yet to win at that level in 26 attempts. All 6 of his wins have come when he has stepped up or been placed in slightly different conditions. That oddity alone is worth watching — a horse who seems to find something extra when the circumstances shift.