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Paddy's Day

Paddy's Day is a course specialist in the making at Newcastle, where he has won seven of his 17 races — a win rate that puts him in rare company at that track. At six years old, he is still racing regularly and finished in the top 3 in his last outing just a day ago, suggesting he remains competitive. His overall record of 9 wins from 57 races (winning roughly 1 in every 6 starts) is respectable for a horse racing mainly at Class 4 level, and he has found the winner's enclosure often enough to be worth watching when conditions suit.Based on TrackLab's analysis
Quick facts
Age
6 years old
Sex
Gelding
Colour
Bay
Father
Starspangledbanner
Mother
Elusive Gold
Owner
Ontoawinner 1
Official rating
80

📊 Key numbers

Career totals for this horse
57
Career races
9
Wins
15.8%
Win rate
avg ~10%
45.6%
Top-3 rate
avg ~30%
2 days
Since last race

🔍 Full analysis

Our model's view, based on this horse's career and recent runs
TrackLab's detailed breakdown

What makes Paddy's Day interesting is his love of normal ground and his partnership with jockey Alex Jary. On standard conditions, he wins roughly 1 in every 3 or 4 races — a win rate of 28% across 25 starts — which is significantly better than his overall record. With Jary in the saddle, the pair have won 7 of their 25 races together, also at 28%, suggesting genuine compatibility between horse and rider. Trainer Nigel Tinkler, who runs a prolific yard from Langton in North Yorkshire, has had success getting the best from this horse. Tinkler's comments after Paddy's Day's debut win at Windsor in May 2022 captured his uncomplicated nature: a horse who takes racing in his stride without fuss, the kind that simply does his job when asked.

It is worth noting that Paddy's Day has not won in his last six races, with his most recent victory coming at Newcastle in December 2024 — nearly a year ago. His last run, just yesterday, saw him finish third, which keeps him ticking over as a live contender. The long gap since his last win suggests he may need the right race and conditions to break through again, but his track record at Newcastle and his affinity for normal ground give him clear angles to work with. For a horse of his age and experience, he remains a serviceable performer with obvious strengths.

⚡ Strengths and risks

What helps this horse and what to watch out for
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on standard ground: 7 wins from 25 starts (28%)
✔ Excellent record on standard_to_slow ground: 1 wins from 4 starts (25%)
✔ Course specialist at Newcastle: 7 wins from 17 starts (41%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good ground: 0 wins from 14 starts
⚠ Poor record on good_to_soft ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
⚠ Yet to win at Southwell in 6 attempts
⚠ Struggles on RH Undulating tracks: 0 wins from 5 starts

🎯 Where this horse runs best

Results split by ground, distance, race level and track shape
🌧 Ground
Standard (all-weather)
Loves
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Loves
Good to firm (fairly firm)
Ok
Soft (muddy)
Unknown
Good (a little give)
Avoids
Good to soft (some give)
Avoids
📏 Race distance
5F – 6½F
Sprint (< 5F)
Avoids
🏅 Race level
Class 1 (elite)
Unknown
Class 2 (high-level)
Loves
Class 3 (mid-level)
Loves
Class 4 (standard)
Class 5 (entry-level)
Ok
🏟 Track shape
Left-handed, long straights
Right-handed, tight turns
Ok
Right-handed, long straights
Unknown
Left-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Left-handed, tight
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids

📅 Recent runs

The last 10 races, most recent first
16 Oct
3rd
Newcastle
5f – 6½f · Standard · 11 runners
26 Sep
6th
Southwell
Sprint (< 5f) · Standard · 10 runners
13 Sep
6th
Doncaster
5f – 6½f · Good · 16 runners
29 Aug
9th
Beverley
5f – 6½f · Soft · 11 runners
3 Jul
3rd
Doncaster
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 7 runners
26 Jun
7th
Newcastle
5f – 6½f · Standard_To_Slow · 14 runners
6 Jun
2nd
Doncaster
5f – 6½f · Good_To_Firm · 11 runners
13 Apr
7th
Newcastle
5f – 6½f · Standard · 10 runners
27 Mar
5th
Newcastle
5f – 6½f · Standard · 14 runners
6 Feb
3rd
Newcastle
5f – 6½f · Standard · 14 runners

🏇 Jockeys

Every jockey who has ridden this horse, most rides first
Alex Jary Current jockey
28.0%
Win rate
7/25
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/12
Wins / rides
20%
Win rate
1/5
Wins / rides
33.3%
Win rate
1/3
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/2
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides
0%
Win rate
0/1
Wins / rides

🏟 Course record

Win rate at each course this horse has visited
CourseRacesResultsLast runWin rate
Newcastle
Galloping
17 7 wins, 1 second, 3 thirds, 6 other 16 Oct 41.2%
Southwell
Galloping
6 2 seconds, 1 third, 3 other 26 Sep 0%
Wolverhampton
Galloping
4 1 third, 3 other 18 Aug 0%
Doncaster
Galloping
4 1 second, 1 third, 2 other 13 Sep 0%
Windsor
Sharp
3 1 win, 1 third, 1 other 19 May 33.3%
Beverley
Undulating
3 1 second, 1 third, 1 other 29 Aug 0%
Haydock Park
Galloping
3 3 other 19 Jul 0%
Lingfield Park
Sharp
2 1 win, 1 other 26 Oct 50%
Musselburgh
Sharp
2 1 second, 1 third 2 Apr 0%
Redcar
Galloping
2 1 second, 1 other 7 Oct 0%
Goodwood
Undulating
2 2 other 29 Jul 0%
Ripon
Sharp
2 2 other 8 Jul 0%
Ascot
Galloping
2 2 other 12 Jul 0%
York
Galloping
2 2 other 28 Jul 0%
Ayr
Galloping
1 1 second 22 May 0%
Chester
Tight
1 1 other 2 Sep 0%
Nottingham
Galloping
1 1 other 12 Apr 0%