Paddy's Day

Now six years old, Paddy's Day has built a career record of 9 wins and 25 places from 53 races, meaning he has finished in the first three almost two-thirds of the time. He wins roughly 1 in every 6 races overall (17%), but that number flatters to deceive — strip out his performances away from Newcastle and you are looking at a much more modest horse. His preferred surface is normal conditions, where he has won 7 of 23 races, roughly 1 in 3, which is an exceptional ratio. He is at his best when everything lines up just right: the right track, the right ground.

His partnership with jockey Alex Jary is another thread worth pulling on. The two have won 7 times from 25 races together — that is better than 1 in every 4 rides, a win rate that significantly outstrips Paddy's Day's overall record. When Jary is booked, it is worth paying attention. Tinkler described the horse early in his career as uncomplicated and relaxed, taking everything in his stride — and that temperament appears to have served him well across three seasons of busy, consistent racing.

The two most recent wins both came in Class 2 races at Newcastle, which sit among the better races in the British calendar. That is a step up from his most common level of Class 4, where he wins at 17% — 3 wins from 18 races — and it shows he can rise to a bigger occasion when the conditions are right. His recent form figures of 3-7-2-7-5-3 tell a story of a horse who is placing without winning right now, but given that his last victory came at Newcastle, and that Newcastle is where he has made his name, it would be unwise to write him off next time he lines up there.