Mubasimah

The real puzzle with Mubasimah is what has happened since that Newmarket success. In the last six races, there has been nothing to write home about: a couple of mid-field efforts sandwiched around a string of mid-pack and beaten finishes. The most recent run came just yesterday, which shows the horse is still actively campaigned, but the form tells a clear story—that September victory now sits 12 months in the past. There is a distance sweet spot worth noting, though. Over seven furlongs to a mile, Mubasimah has won one of five races, a 20 percent win rate that suggests the horse performs better at that middle-ground trip. Anywhere shorter or longer, and the consistency drops away.

Mubasimah races for Andrew Balding's powerful yard at Kingsclere in Hampshire, a operation that has already saddled 202 winners this season and is clearly one of the better-resourced stables in the country. That backing counts for something. The horse clearly has ability—beating the right horses on the right day at Newmarket proved that—but has not yet put together the kind of run that would suggest a return to that form is imminent. At three years old, there is still time for that to change.