Metal Merchant
Metal Merchant is a 6-year-old who has spent nearly three years chasing the form that arrived so suddenly in spring 2024. That was when he won a Class 2 race at Newbury—one of Britain's top-tier handicaps—in what his trainer Jack Channon called "a very smart performance". It was only his fourth career win from 28 races, a 14% win rate that tells you he is a horse who can win when conditions align, but rarely does. He has not won since, and his recent form reads like a long goodbye: ninth, fourth, fourteenth, thirteenth, twentieth, twelfth across his last six races. He raced just a day ago, so he is still active, but the winning spark has long since faded.Based on TrackLab's AI analysis
Owner
Recycled Products Limited
📊 Key Numbers
Career statistics for this horse
32.1%
Place rate (top 3)
avg ~30%
🔍 Full Analysis
TrackLab's AI-generated assessment based on career data and recent form
What made that Newbury win matter was what it represented. Metal Merchant performs best on normal ground—he has won 2 of his 8 races (25%) when the track is in standard condition—and at a mile, the distance that suits his type. His trainer describes him as a tough, honest horse who loves racing and handles the demands of running in the biggest handicaps. At Class 2 level, though, he is a heavy underdog: just 1 win from 11 races (9%). The partnership with jockey David Probert has yielded little: 1 win from 9 rides together. John Butler's Newmarket yard sent out 39 winners this season, but Metal Merchant has not added to that tally since April 2024—a gap now stretching beyond two years. He remains a race fit, campaigning horse, but somewhere along the way from that spring day at Newbury to now, the horse who was meant to thrive in those big mile handicaps simply stopped winning. What looked like a turning point has become a long, slow fade.
⚡ Strengths & Risks
What the data says works for and against this horse
✓ What works in their favour
✔ Excellent record on good ground: 2 wins from 8 starts (25%)
✔ Excellent record on good_to_soft ground: 1 wins from 4 starts (25%)
⚠ What to watch out for
⚠ Poor record on good_to_firm ground: 0 wins from 6 starts
⚠ Poor record on soft ground: 0 wins from 3 starts
🎯 Where This Horse Thrives
Performance broken down by ground, distance, class, and track type
🌧 Ground Conditions
Good to soft (some give)
Loves
Standard to slow (all-weather)
Unknown
Standard (all-weather)
Unknown
Good to firm (drying out)
Avoids
🏅 Competition Level
Class 3 (mid-level)
Loves
Class 4 (standard)
Unknown
Class 5 (entry-level)
Unknown
🏟 Track Shape
Left-handed, long straights
Likes
Right-handed, long straights
Ok
Right-handed, tight turns
Unknown
Right-handed, hilly
Avoids
📅 Recent Runs
The last 10 races, most recent first
12 Aug
9th
Kempton Park
7f – 1m · 11 runners
25 Jul
4th
Newcastle
1m1f – 1m2f · 14 runners
27 Jun
14th
Newcastle
7f – 1m · Standard_To_Slow · 14 runners
22 May
13th
Goodwood
7f – 1m · Good · 15 runners
28 Mar
20th
Doncaster
1m1f – 1m2f · Good_To_Soft · 22 runners
10 May
12th
Ascot
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 19 runners
12 Apr
10th
Newbury
1m1f – 1m2f · Good · 14 runners
25 Aug
9th
Goodwood
7f – 1m · Good_To_Soft · 14 runners
27 Jul
4th
Ascot
7f – 1m · Good_To_Firm · 18 runners
6 Jul
7th
Sandown Park
1m1f – 1m2f · Soft · 10 runners
🏇 Jockey Partnerships
Every jockey who has ridden this horse, sorted by rides together
🏟 Track Record
Win rate at each course this horse has visited
| Course | Races | Results | Last visited | Win rate |
|---|
| Ascot Galloping |
6 |
1 win, 1 third, 4 other |
10 May |
16.7% |
| Newbury Galloping |
5 |
1 win, 2 seconds, 2 other |
12 Apr |
20% |
| Newmarket Galloping |
3 |
1 third, 2 other |
4 Nov |
0% |
| Goodwood Undulating |
3 |
3 other |
22 May |
0% |
| Kempton Park Galloping |
2 |
2 other |
12 Aug |
0% |
| Sandown Park Galloping |
2 |
2 other |
6 Jul |
0% |
| Newcastle Galloping |
2 |
2 other |
25 Jul |
0% |
| chelmsford |
1 |
1 win |
7 Jun |
100% |
| Ayr Galloping |
1 |
1 win |
17 Sep |
100% |
| Leicester Sharp |
1 |
1 other |
23 May |
0% |
| Doncaster Galloping |
1 |
1 other |
28 Mar |
0% |
| Haydock Park Galloping |
1 |
1 third |
27 May |
0% |