Mesaafi

Trained by Ross Burdon out of Newmarket — a yard that has sent out 12 winners already this season — Mesaafi got off the mark at Newcastle back in January 2025 and has continued to build on that foundation. The most recent win came at Windsor just six weeks ago, and with the horse having raced as recently as yesterday, there's clearly no shortage of enthusiasm from the team. The current run of form reads 13-4-1-4-8-10, which means Mesaafi has been threatening before finding a way to win, then threatening again — the profile of a horse in decent nick.

The ground makes a real difference here. On normal conditions, Mesaafi has won 3 from 10 races — that's 30%, or nearly 1 in every 3 — which is a genuinely impressive conversion rate at this level. For comparison, the overall career win rate is 13%. In other words, put Mesaafi on a standard surface and the chances of winning more than double. That's the kind of stat that matters if you're watching the weather forecast.

Jack Mitchell is the go-to jockey, the pair having teamed up seven times together with one win between them. Most of Mesaafi's races come at Class 4 level — a step below the biggest races but competitive enough that winning 2 from 11 at 18%, or roughly 1 in every 5, is nothing to be sniffed at. This is a horse operating in the right company, being placed thoughtfully, and delivering when conditions suit. At five years old and clearly still in form, there's every reason to think the Windsor win won't be the last entry on that record.