Mesaafi

Those conditions, it turns out, matter enormously. On normal ground, Mesaafi transforms. Three wins from 10 races in those conditions works out to 30% — nearly 1 in every 3 starts — which is a dramatically better record than its overall numbers suggest. That gap tells you this is a horse with a real preference, not just a quirk. Get the ground wrong and you are probably getting a different horse entirely.

Mesaafi is trained by Ross Burdon out of Newmarket, a yard that has sent out 12 winners already this season and is clearly in decent form. The horse most often partners with jockey Jack Mitchell, though that combination has yet to click — five rides together and no wins between them. That is not necessarily damning, but it is a number worth noting. The horse has clearly found the winner's enclosure without him.

Most of Mesaafi's racing happens at Class 4 level, which sits in the middle tier of British racing — competitive, but not the very top end. At that level, 2 wins from 11 races represents a win rate of around 18%, or just under 1 in every 6 attempts, which is perfectly respectable. Its first career win came at Newcastle in January 2025, and its most recent at Lingfield Park in June 2025 — two very different tracks, which suggests the horse is adaptable enough when things fall its way.

What makes Mesaafi worth watching right now is the tension between recent form and recent history. The last six races read 8-10-4-4-3-4 — nothing higher than third — and it has not won in any of them. Yet it raced just one day ago and is clearly active and in training. A horse that wins 30% of its races on good ground, competes regularly, and is handled by a yard in form is not a spent force. It is waiting for the right day.