Manila Scouse

The horse has a clear preference that makes him worth watching. He wants wet or muddy ground and stays around five furlongs, a distance combination that sounds oddly specific until you see how dramatically it changes his form. Last summer, he won at Ayr on July 6th, and more recently he's been placed at Class 2 level, the second tier of British racing. That's respectable, but the numbers reveal the ceiling: he has just 1 win from 21 races at Class 2, a 5 percent win rate that shows he is competitive at that level but rarely gets over the line against the best horses. At lower classes, he wins more regularly, and it is in those races where he has found his success.

Tim Easterby's yard at Great Habton has sent out 128 winners this season, a powerhouse operation, and the trainer knows exactly what Manila Scouse needs: soft or heavy ground and five furlongs, ideally with a hill to climb. The horse's regular jockey, David Allan, has ridden him to 3 wins from 21 races together (a matching 14 percent), and after one recent run, Allan noted that Manila Scouse "probably just likes the rain and the uphill finish" because he travels strongly through the ground and gets through the line hard. He was last in action just a day ago, so he remains very much active and hunting for another opportunity in the conditions that suit him.