Maasai Mara

The story changes entirely on wet ground. In three races run in wet or muddy conditions, Maasai Mara has won two of them — a 67% win rate that stands in stark contrast to his overall record. It is a dramatic difference, and it suggests that his trainer, John O'Shea, knows exactly when to send him out. Distance suits him too: over 1 mile 1 furlong to 1 mile 2 furlongs, he has won 1 of his 3 races, a third of his attempts at that trip. The formula is there — bog him down in the mud over the right ground and the right distance — but Maasai Mara has been unable to land a blow in his last six runs. His form has slipped to 5-7-2-12-4-7 in his most recent outings, a sequence that suggests he is losing ground on his peers. With O'Shea's yard having sent out only 6 winners all season, there is little sense of momentum around Maasai Mara either. He is still active, still racing, but the lights have dimmed since that winter win at Catterick.