Livonian

The story becomes more telling in recent form. Livonian has gone winless for a full year since that Windsor success, and the last six runs paint a picture of gradual drift away from contention: finishing ninth, tenth, fourteenth, eleventh, fifth, and third. That most recent third-place finish came just yesterday, so the horse remains active, but it is running out of runway quickly. There is a glimmer of hope in the numbers at certain distances and levels. Over middle distances between 1m1f and 1m2f, Livonian has won one race from four attempts—a 25% win rate that is double the career average. Even more encouraging, when stepping into lower-class races, the horse has won one from three, suggesting it may belong at this level rather than anywhere higher. The question now is whether those better performances can be rekindled. Livonian has the form to catch the eye on the right day at the right track, but consistency and that killer instinct at the finish have been lacking for too long.