Legendary Day

The conditions matter enormously with this horse, and his record makes that clear. On wet or muddy ground he has won 3 from 11 races — that is 27%, better than 1 in 4 — and on normal conditions he has won 2 from just 6, which is 33%, or 1 in 3. His owner has been direct about it: the ground needs to have some give in it on the flat, though over hurdles he actually prefers it not too soft. Get the conditions wrong and you are unlikely to see his best. The trainer's early read on him — that he must have juice in the ground — proved well-founded.

Distance is the other key. At between a mile and six furlongs and two miles, he has won 5 of 15 races, a 33% win rate that is his clearest sweet spot. Push him shorter and the numbers thin out considerably. Barry Brennan, based at Upper Lambourn, has a yard that has sent out 6 winners this season, and he knows this horse well enough to point him at the right opportunities. Mark Winn, his most regular jockey, has won 1 from 5 rides together — 20% — which is a decent return in a sport where finding the right partnership matters.

The honest part of the picture is that Legendary Day has not won in his last 6 races and his last six runs read as a sequence of mid-field finishes that suggest he is carrying some form. He raced just yesterday, so he is clearly still active and still being campaigned with intent. The Newcastle track — where he has won 2 from 5 — is worth watching for if the yard decide to return there. A horse who once won a Class 2 at Doncaster has shown what a good day looks like. The question is whether another one is coming.