Lava Stream

The raw numbers back the impression up. Three wins from 12 races gives her a win rate of 25%, meaning she wins roughly 1 in every 4 races she runs — solid on its own, but the quality of those wins is what matters here. She has run four times at Class 1 level, the very top tier of British racing, and won one of them. That is not a horse being placed in the wrong company; that is a horse who belongs there.

O'Meara's yard has been in excellent form, sending out 101 winners this season alone, and Lava Stream looks like one of its flagbearers for the big occasions. The trainer has described her as a horse who exceeded expectations early on — they thought she would pick up a Listed race, one of the sport's secondary honours, and she went and won a Class 1 instead. The stated ambition now is a Group race win, the highest level the sport has to offer.

The one complication is timing. Her last win came 25 months ago, and her recent form — finishing seventh, fourth, fifth, sixth, and ninth across her last several outings — suggests she has been finding the top level tough to crack. She raced just one day ago and is clearly still being aimed at the big prizes. Regular partner Daniel Tudhope, who rides her in roughly half her races, has one win from six alongside her, or about 1 in 6 — a figure that tells you more about the difficulty of the races she runs in than any lack of ability. She is five years old, lightly raced for her age, and by her trainer's own account still learning. The feeling around the yard seems to be that the best is genuinely still to come.