Kotari

When Kotari has won, the ingredients have been fairly consistent. Normal ground suits it best: two of its three wins have come on standard conditions, at a rate of 22% — roughly 1 in every 5 attempts on a good surface. The distance of one mile three or four furlongs also seems to bring out the best in it, producing two wins from seven races at that trip, which works out to nearly 1 in 3 — a noticeably better conversion than its overall record of winning 3 from 26. Put Kotari on normal ground over a mile and a half, and you're looking at a horse operating in its comfort zone.

The partnership with jockey Jason Watson is worth noting. Together they've won 2 of their 5 races — that's 40%, or 2 in every 5 rides, which is a genuinely strong record and well above the horse's overall average. Watson clearly gets something out of Kotari that others haven't always managed to unlock.

The yard behind the horse is in excellent shape. Gary and Josh Moore have sent out 99 winners this season, which marks them out as one of the more productive training operations in the country — a busy, successful team that clearly knows how to place a horse. Kotari typically runs at Class 5 level, the bread-and-butter tier of British racing, where it has won 2 from 10 races, or 1 in every 5. That's a solid record at that level, even if the wins have dried up recently.

Having raced just yesterday, Kotari is right in the thick of its campaign. The winning formula — normal ground, the right trip, Watson in the saddle — hasn't changed. The next win is overdue, but the pieces are still there.